Thoughts on the London Attacks

My earlier post today was written before my knowledge of the London atrocities. I was going to apply it the world’s response after 9/11. Despite the clear fact that the peace had already been broken and an initial unity, the world divided itself into peacemakers and peacekeepers. Tony Blair led his people, almost alone in Western Europe, in declaring themselves on the side of the peacemakers (which I have yet to define in my blog).

First, I offer my prayers for the English people. They have been our closest allies for the past hundred years. I have no doubt that if they had abandoned us after 9/11 like so many of our other so-called allies, then the attack would not have occurred this morning in London. I pray for their pain, grief, and shock. I pray also that their response to this attack will represent the best of the English spirit:

I have, myself, full confidence that if all do their duty, if nothing is neglected, and if the best arrangements are made, as they are being made, we shall prove ourselves once again able to defend our Island home, to ride out the storm of war, and to outlive the menace of tyranny, if necessary for years, if necessary alone. […]

We shall go on to the end, we shall fight in France, we shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our Island, whatever the cost may be, we shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender, and even if, which I do not for a moment believe, this Island or a large part of it were subjugated and starving, then our Empire beyond the seas, armed and guarded by the British Fleet, would carry on the struggle, until, in God's good time, the New World, with all its power and might, steps forth to the rescue and the liberation of the old.--Winston Churchill

Second, al-Qaida is very, very smart. While the attack must have been planned weeks ahead in order to coincide with the G-8 summit in Scotland, it came with an added bonus, London had been awarded the Olympic games the day before. Four simultaneous attacks with perfect timing would be impressive by the U.S. military. It is even more impressive by a terrorist organization. They should not be underestimated.

My analysis: I am certain, considering the scope and depth of al-Qaida operations, that they are perfectly capable of launching another attack on U.S. soil. They haven’t. Why? The 9/11 attacks initially created worldwide sympathy for the United States that must have scared their leadership. Successful terrorists attacks should serve to divide the victim and expose his impotence. Another attack runs the risk of unifying American public opinion. Al-Qaida is better served by fighting us in Afghanistan and Iraq and basking in American disunity and the slow weakening of her resolve. Time is al-Qaida’s greatest weapon in the United States. There is nothing to gain in an attack on American soil.

In addition, the United States runs presidential elections every four years. Al-Qaida knows that it has to deal with Bush the Younger until 2009 and knows that his response will not be the weak Western response that al-Qaida saw after earlier attacks (WTC I; USS Cole; African Embassies, etc). The 9/11 attacks did not expose American weakness, but revealed the strength of an America when led by a man willing to take steep political risks. Instead of planning another attack, al-Qaida has spent the years since 9/11 consumed with defense while undergoing a strategic reassessment. Their goals have not changed, but their means have.

My belief is that al-Qaida has been systematically seeking to isolate the United States on the world stage and divide Americans at home. The Bali and Spanish bombings were attempts to dislodge Australia and Spain, respectively, from the US coalition. The London bombings are part of that same strategy. This attack is aimed at our only major partner. It is a test of English resolve. Before the bombing, English resolve was weakening much like it has here in the United States. Blair has been indomitable. His leadership in the war has been as courageous, perhaps even more so, than Bush’s. However, I hazard no guess on what may happen next. I fear the English response will be the Spanish one: submission. At the same time, I was left surprised and moved when the 9/11 attacks revealed that a deep strength resides in America. We shall see. We shall pray.

Peace